- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 3
- Too vague
- 2
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (3)
2027 may see robots that can do tasks in the real world
“2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.”
2026 will likely see AI systems that figure out novel insights
“2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights.”
AGI "will probably get developed during this president's term"
“AGI will probably get developed during this president's term, and getting that right seems really important.”
Too vague / not scored (2)
AI agents may "join the workforce" in 2025
“We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies.”
Superintelligence possible "in a few thousand days"
“It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.”
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