OpenPrediction
AI "10,000 times smarter than humans" within 10 years
“Artificial intelligence that is 10,000 times smarter than humans will be here in 10 years, SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son said on Friday in a rare public appearance.”
Context: SoftBank annual general meeting (June 21, 2024), as reported by CNBC; he calls this artificial super intelligence (ASI).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 21 Jun 2034, artificial superintelligence vastly exceeding the best humans at essentially all cognitive tasks exists. "10,000 times" is not measurable, so we score the ASI part.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 2812 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
