OpenPrediction
50/50 that AI learns on the job like a human for any white-collar work by 2032
“AI learns on the job as easily, organically, seamlessly, and quickly as a human, for any white collar work.”
Context: Same post: the date given for this milestone is 2032 ("timelines where I'd take a 50/50 bet"), e.g. an AI video editor that after six months knows his preferences as well as a human.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if by 31 Dec 2032 deployed AI systems show human-like continual learning on the job across white-collar work.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 2276 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 50%
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
