OpenPrediction
AGI "likely to arrive by 2027"
“said artificial general intelligence — systems as capable as humans across domains — is likely to arrive by 2027.”
Context: Diary of a CEO podcast (Sep 4, 2025), as reported by Business Insider.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: AI as capable as humans across domains exists by 31 Dec 2027, by broad expert recognition.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 448 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
