OpenPrediction
~15%: AI capable of fully automating AI R&D by the start of 2029
“I now would put ~15% probability by the start of 2029 and a 45% chance by the start of 2033.”
Context: LessWrong post "My AGI timeline updates from GPT-5 (and 2025 so far)" (Aug 2025). Down from about 25% at the start of 2025.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if by 1 Jan 2029 an AI system exists that could fully automate AI R&D (do all the work of a frontier lab's research staff).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 815 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 15%
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
