OpenPrediction
Human-level AGI most likely in 2029-2030, possibly as early as 2027
“Goertzel suggested 2029 or 2030 could be the likeliest years when humanity will build the first AGI agent, but that it could happen as early as 2027.”
Context: Closing speech at the Beneficial AGI Summit, Panama (Mar 2024), as reported by Live Science.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if a human-level AGI agent (broadly as capable as humans across cognitive tasks) is built by end-2030.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1545 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
