OpenPrediction
By 2029, AI "probably smarter than all humans combined"
“By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.”
Context: Post on X; the same post predicts AI smarter than any single human "next year" (tracked separately in the seed).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 31 Dec 2029, a single AI system (or coordinated AI collective) out-thinks humanity's combined intellectual output, e.g. it can do essentially all cognitive work faster and better than all human experts together.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1177 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
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