CorrectPrediction

No AGI in 2025

“We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary.”

Gary MarcusCognitive scientist and author; AI commentatorSaid · Source: garymarcus.substack.com

Context: "25 AI Predictions for 2025" (high-confidence list).

How we judge it

No system broadly accepted as AGI by 31 Dec 2025.

Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology

Said
Resolve by
Verdict
Correct ()
Stated probability
None stated
Specificity
2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
Score
1.0 points × weight 2

Evidence & grader’s note

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