OpenPrediction
Powerful AI systems in late 2026 or early 2027
“we expect powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.”
Context: Anthropic recommendations to the White House OSTP; the post defines "powerful AI" (Nobel-level capability across most disciplines, autonomous multi-day work).
How we judge it
Our interpretation, using Anthropic's own definition: by 31 Mar 2027 a system exists matching or exceeding Nobel-level researchers across most listed disciplines.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 173 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
