OpenPrediction
Median ~2040 for transformative AI (50% by 2040)
“A median of ~2040 (a decrease of ~10 years from 2050).”
Context: Ajeya Cotra, "Two-year update on my personal AI timelines" (AI Alignment Forum, Aug 2, 2022). TAI = "transformative AI", AI that drives a transition comparable to the industrial revolution.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if transformative AI (as defined in her report) exists by 31 Dec 2040.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 5195 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 50%
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
- What changes for
- Everyone
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