Person

Ajeya Cotra

AI forecaster and researcher (Open Philanthropy; author of the "biological anchors" report)

Score: —
95% interval: —
Resolved: 0
Record (C–P–W): 0–0–0
Open: 3
Too vague: 0

Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.

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Calibration

No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.

Track record

Open (3)

OpenPrediction

Median ~2040 for transformative AI (50% by 2040)

“A median of ~2040 (a decrease of ~10 years from 2050).”

said Aug 2, 2022 · Due in 5195 days

OpenPrediction

~35% probability of transformative AI by 2036

“~35% probability by 2036 (a ~3x likelihood ratio [3] vs 15%).”

said Aug 2, 2022 · Due in 3734 days

OpenPrediction

~15% probability of transformative AI by 2030

“~15% probability by 2030 (a decrease of ~6 years from 2036).”

said Aug 2, 2022 · Due in 1542 days

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Plain citation

SiPoly, “Ajeya Cotra: AI predictions and promises track record.” https://sipoly.si/who/ajeya-cotra/ (accessed October 11, 2026).

APA style

SiPoly. (n.d.). Ajeya Cotra: AI predictions and promises track record [Forecaster profile]. sipoly.si. Retrieved October 11, 2026, from https://sipoly.si/who/ajeya-cotra/

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