"Probably" by Dec 2026 the recursive self-improvement loop on algorithms will be closed
“I would guess that by December 2026 the RSI loop on algorithms will probably be closed, resulting in another inflection point to an even faster pace, perhaps around 70-80 day doubling time.”
Context: Post on X (Dec 20, 2025), on the doubling time of AI capability trends (e.g. METR time horizons).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if by 31 Dec 2026 (1) METR or an equivalent tracker reports that the doubling time of frontier 50% time horizons over 2026 is about 80 days or less, and (2) at least one frontier lab states publicly that AI systems now do most of its algorithmic research work. Wrong if neither holds; partly if only one does.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 81 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
- Readiness milestone
- Part of AI automates AI research (recursive self-improvement) (says it happens)
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