An AI company will claim AGI "probably in 2026 or 2027"
“I believe that very soon — probably in 2026 or 2027, but possibly as soon as this year — one or more A.I. companies will claim they’ve created an artificial general intelligence”
Context: Kevin Roose, "Powerful A.I. Is Coming. We're Not Ready." (The New York Times, 14 Mar 2025). He adds that he expects debates over whether it counts as "real" A.G.I.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if by 31 Dec 2027 a major AI company formally and publicly claims to have created AGI.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 446 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- What changes for
- Everyone
- Readiness milestone
- Part of AGI declared or widely agreed (says it happens)
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