OpenPrediction
Human-level intelligence and AGI by 2029
“So 2029, both for human-level intelligence and for artificial general intelligence (AGI) – which is a little bit different.”
Context: Interview with The Observer/Guardian.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 31 Dec 2029, AI matches the most skilled humans in most domains.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1180 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
