About a 50% chance of AGI within 3 years (Feb 2024)
“I expect to need the money sometime in the next 3 years, because that’s about when we get to 50% chance of AGI.”
Context: Daniel Kokotajlo in a LessWrong comment on "Retirement Accounts and Short Timelines" (19 Feb 2024), explaining why he would not lock money in a retirement account. He later moved his median to about 2029-2030.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: probabilistic (50%). YES if by 19 Feb 2027 an AI system is broadly recognized by independent experts as AGI (able to do essentially all the cognitive work of a top AI researcher/engineer); a developer's own claim does not count on its own.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 131 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 50%
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
- What changes for
- Everyone
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