OpenPrediction
Bet: AI will not get an A on 5 of his 6 latest midterms by January 2029
“If the AI gets an A on at least 5 of out 6 of those exams using same grading scale as his students, then Bryan owes Matthew $500.”
Context: Bryan Caplan's public $500 bet with Matthew Barnett (Bet On It, Jan 19, 2023); Caplan takes the side that AI will NOT do it by Jan 30, 2029.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: Caplan is right if an AI does not get an A (A- counts) on at least 5 of his 6 most recent midterms by 30 Jan 2029, under the bet's terms.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 844 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
