OpenPrediction
Only Waymo and Zoox will matter for US self-driving through 2035
“In the US the players that will determine whether self driving cars are successful or abandoned are #1 Waymo (Google) and #2 Zoox (Amazon). No one else matters.”
Context: Ten-year prediction (2026-2035) posted 26 Mar 2025 and restated in the Jan 2026 scorecard.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if at 1 Jan 2036 Waymo and Zoox are the two largest US driverless ride services by rides or fleet, and no other company (e.g. Tesla) runs a comparable driverless service.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 3372 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
