Came true late: · 8 months after the deadline
75%: OpenAI releases "ChatGPT-5" by end of November 2024
“OpenAI will release ChatGPT-5 by the end of November 2024 (75 percent)”
Context: Future Perfect's annual predictions; this item by Bryan Walsh ("BW"), who specified that the product must be called ChatGPT-5.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: OpenAI releases a product named ChatGPT-5 (or GPT-5) by 30 Nov 2024.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Wrong at deadline ()
- Stated probability
- 75%
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- Score
- Brier 0.563 → 0.44 points
Later developments
Came true late: · 8 months after the deadline
Verdict at the deadline: Wrong (). That verdict, and the score, stay as they are; this line records that it happened later. Methodology
OpenAI introduced GPT-5 on 7 Aug 2025.
Last checked for later developments .
Evidence & grader’s note
Self-graded wrong by Vox; GPT-5 arrived in Aug 2025. Brier = 0.5625.
