Organization
Vox Future Perfect
Vox section that publishes yearly staff forecasts with probabilities (Kelsey Piper, Dylan Matthews, Bryan Walsh and others)
- Score
- 77%
- 95% interval
- 27%–97%
- Resolved
- 3
- Record (C–P–W)
- 2–0–1
- Open
- 0
- Too vague
- 0
- Mean Brier
- 0.231 (3)
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 3). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
| Stated probability | Forecasts | Mean stated | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20% | 0 | — | — |
| 20–40% | 1 | 30% | 0% |
| 40–60% | 0 | — | — |
| 60–80% | 1 | 75% | 0% |
| 80–100% | 1 | 80% | 100% |
Track record
Resolved (3)
CorrectPrediction
30%: a major AI lab will formally claim AGI in 2025
“A major lab will formally claim it has achieved AGI (30 percent)”
CorrectPrediction
80%: Waymo opens public driverless rides in a new city in 2024
“Waymo will expand to a new city (80 percent)”
WrongPrediction
75%: OpenAI releases "ChatGPT-5" by end of November 2024
“OpenAI will release ChatGPT-5 by the end of November 2024 (75 percent)”
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