- Score
- 92%
- 95% interval
- 54%–99%
- Resolved
- 7
- Record (C–P–W)
- 7–0–0
- Open
- 0
- Too vague
- 0
- Mean Brier
- 0.087 (7)
Ranked on leaderboards (7 resolved claims). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
| Stated probability | Forecasts | Mean stated | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20% | 1 | 10% | 0% |
| 20–40% | 2 | 30% | 0% |
| 40–60% | 1 | 50% | 100% |
| 60–80% | 1 | 70% | 100% |
| 80–100% | 2 | 80% | 100% |
Track record
Resolved (7)
CorrectPrediction
50%: AI risk will feel more widely accepted as a field by 2023 (40% same, 10% less)
“7. AI risk as a field subjectively feels more/same/less widely accepted than today: 50%/40%/10%”
CorrectPrediction
80%: MIRI still exists in 2023
“6. MIRI still exists in 2023: 80%”
CorrectPrediction
70%: AI beats a top human player at StarCraft by 2023
“AI beats a top human player at Starcraft: 70%”
CorrectPrediction
30%: average person can buy a self-driving car for under $100,000 by 2023
“Average person can buy a self-driving car for less than $100,000: 30%”
CorrectPrediction
10%: 5% of US truck drivers replaced by self-driving trucks by 2023
“At least 5% of US truck drivers have been replaced by self-driving trucks: 10%”
CorrectPrediction
30%: self-driving hail in five of the ten largest US cities by 2023
“…in at least five of ten largest US cities: 30%”
CorrectPrediction
80%: average person can hail a self-driving car in at least one US city by 2023
“Average person can hail a self-driving car in at least one US city: 80%”
Embed this scorecard
Right of reply: send a correction or response.