CorrectPrediction
50%: AI risk will feel more widely accepted as a field by 2023 (40% same, 10% less)
“7. AI risk as a field subjectively feels more/same/less widely accepted than today: 50%/40%/10%”
Context: Slate Star Codex, "Predictions for 2018-2023" (Feb 2018). Scored here on the "more" branch (50%).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if by 2023 AI risk is more widely accepted as a field than in 2018.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Correct ()
- Stated probability
- 50%
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
- Score
- Brier 0.250 → 0.75 points
Evidence & grader’s note
Self-graded "more", which is uncontroversial given 2023 (the CAIS statement, AI Safety Summit). With 50% on the realized branch, the Brier-based score is 0.75.
