- Score
- 0%
- 95% interval
- 0%–79%
- Resolved
- 1
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–1
- Open
- 2
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 1). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Resolved (1)
WrongPrediction
Deep learning to do "a lot better than radiologists" within five years
“People should stop training radiologists now. It’s just completely obvious that within five years, deep learning is going to do a lot better than radiologists”
Open (2)
OpenPrediction
AIs smarter than people "within probably the next 20 years"
“most of the experts in the field think that sometime, within probably the next 20 years, we’re going to develop AIs that are smarter than people.”
OpenPrediction
"10% to 20%" chance AI leads to human extinction within three decades
“said there was a “10% to 20%” chance that AI would lead to human extinction within the next three decades.”
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