Organization
Google / Google DeepMind
Alphabet AI units (Gemini models, Google DeepMind)
- Score
- 100%
- 95% interval
- 57%–100%
- Resolved
- 5
- Record (C–P–W)
- 5–0–0
- Open
- 0
- Too vague
- 0
Ranked on leaderboards (5 resolved claims). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Promise tracker
Kept 5 Partly 0 Broken 0 Pending 0
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Resolved (5)
Seoul commitment: publish a safety framework before the France summit
“to demonstrate how they have achieved this by publishing a safety framework focused on severe risks by the upcoming AI Summit in France.”
Frontier Safety Framework "fully implemented by early 2025"
“We aim to have this initial framework fully implemented by early 2025.”
AI Overviews to reach over a billion people by the end of 2024
“That means that this week, hundreds of millions of users will have access to AI Overviews, and we expect to bring them to over a billion people by the end of the year.”
Release the AlphaFold 3 model, including weights, for academic use within six months
“posted on the social-media platform X that the team is “working on releasing the AF3 model (incl weights) for academic use” within six months.”
Gemini Ultra to developers and enterprises "early next year"
“we’ll make Gemini Ultra available to select customers, developers, partners and safety and responsibility experts for early experimentation and feedback before rolling it out to de…”
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