Organization

Thinking Machines Lab

AI lab founded by Mira Murati; developer of Inkling models and the Tinker platform

Score: —
95% interval: —
Resolved: 0
Record (C–P–W): 0–0–0
Open: 1
Too vague: 0

Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.

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Promise tracker

Kept 0 Partly 0 Broken 0 Pending 1

Calibration

No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.

Track record

Open (1)

PendingPromise

Thinking Machines Lab to release full Inkling 2 Small weights under Apache 2.0 the week after 5 Nov 2026

“We intend to make the full weights available under an Apache 2.0 license next week after the completion of external safety testing and red-teaming.”

said Nov 5, 2026 · Due in 8 days

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Plain citation

SiPoly, “Thinking Machines Lab: AI predictions and promises track record.” https://sipoly.si/who/thinking-machines-lab/ (accessed November 7, 2026).

APA style

SiPoly. (n.d.). Thinking Machines Lab: AI predictions and promises track record [Forecaster profile]. sipoly.si. Retrieved November 7, 2026, from https://sipoly.si/who/thinking-machines-lab/

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