- Score
- 96%
- 95% interval
- 19%–100%
- Resolved
- 1
- Record (C–P–W)
- 1–0–0
- Open
- 2
- Too vague
- 0
- Mean Brier
- 0.040 (1)
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 1). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
| Stated probability | Forecasts | Mean stated | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20% | 0 | — | — |
| 20–40% | 1 | 20% | 0% |
| 40–60% | 0 | — | — |
| 60–80% | 0 | — | — |
| 80–100% | 0 | — | — |
Track record
Resolved (1)
CorrectPrediction
20% chance of AGI (replacing the majority of human jobs) by end of 2025
“p(AGI by eoy 2025) = 20%”
Open (2)
OpenPrediction
75% chance of AGI (replacing the majority of human jobs) by end of 2028
“p(AGI by eoy 2028) = 75%”
OpenPrediction
40% chance of AGI (replacing the majority of human jobs) by end of 2026
“p(AGI by eoy 2026) = 40%”
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