Person
Miles Brundage
AI policy researcher; former head of policy research at OpenAI
- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 2
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (2)
OpenPrediction
"Something pretty clearly superhuman in most respects by end of 2027"
“very roughly, something pretty clearly superhuman in most respects by end of 2027 + also very big stuff before then”
OpenPrediction
Bet: AI will do at least 8 of Marcus's 10 hard tasks by the end of 2027
“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice”
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