- Score
- 100%
- 95% interval
- 57%–100%
- Resolved
- 5
- Record (C–P–W)
- 5–0–0
- Open
- 0
- Too vague
- 0
Ranked on leaderboards (5 resolved claims). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Promise tracker
Kept 5 Partly 0 Broken 0 Pending 0
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Resolved (5)
AI Action Plan within 180 days (EO 14179)
“Within 180 days of this order, the Assistant to the President for Science and Technology (APST), the Special Advisor for AI and Crypto, and the Assistant to the President for Natio…”
EO 14110: NIST generative-AI companion to the AI Risk Management Framework within 270 days
“Within 270 days of the date of this order, to help ensure the development of safe, secure, and trustworthy AI systems, the Secretary of Commerce, acting through the Director of the…”
EO 14110: launch a National AI Research Resource pilot within 90 days
“Within 90 days of the date of this order, in coordination with the heads of agencies that the Director of NSF deems appropriate, launch a pilot program implementing the National AI…”
EO 14110: AI risk assessments for critical infrastructure within 90 days
“Within 90 days of the date of this order, and at least annually thereafter, the head of each agency with relevant regulatory authority over critical infrastructure”
EO 14110: frontier-model developers must report to the government within 90 days
“Within 90 days of the date of this order, to ensure and verify the continuous availability of safe, reliable, and effective AI in accordance with the Defense Production Act”
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