OpenPrediction
"Pretty confident" of AI that makes more significant discoveries in 2028 and beyond
“In 2028 and beyond, we are pretty confident we will have systems that can make more significant discoveries”
Context: OpenAI, "AI progress and recommendations" (Nov 6, 2025), adding "though we could of course be wrong".
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by the end of 2028, an AI system is credited with a significant scientific discovery (publishable in a top venue on its own merits, with AI as the main contributor).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 815 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
