OpenPrediction
Bet: AI produces Annals-quality number theory papers for under $100k each within 5 years
“I bet @littmath that in 5 years AI will be able to produce Annals-quality Number Theory papers at an inference budget at or below $100k/paper, at 3:1 odds in my favor.”
Context: Public bet on X with mathematician Daniel Litt.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 11 Mar 2030, AI produces number-theory papers judged of Annals of Mathematics quality (per the bet terms with Daniel Litt) at or below $100k inference cost per paper.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1249 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
