WrongPrediction
Median forecast: MATH benchmark state of the art 71% by end of 2024 (actual 87.9%)
“39. MATH Dataset Benchmark 71% 87.92% 1.38 30”
Context: Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), June-Oct 2022; group median forecasts as reported by the Forecasting Research Institute in "Assessing Near-Term Accuracy in the XPT" (2025). Table row: question, median forecast, resolution, standardized error, N.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: treated as a point forecast of the best MATH score by end-2024; correct if within 5 points of the resolved value.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Wrong ()
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- Score
- 0.0 points × weight 3
Evidence & grader’s note
Median of 71% versus a resolved 87.92%.
