WrongPrediction
Median forecast: largest ML model would have 100 trillion parameters by 2024 (actual ~10 trillion)
“49. Largest Number of Parameters in a Machine Learning Model 100 trillion 10 trillion 1.71 31”
Context: Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), June-Oct 2022; group median forecasts as reported by the Forecasting Research Institute in "Assessing Near-Term Accuracy in the XPT" (2025).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: treated as a point forecast; correct if within a factor of 2 of the resolved value.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Wrong ()
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- Score
- 0.0 points × weight 3
Evidence & grader’s note
An overestimate: parameter counts grew far less than forecast (10 trillion resolved vs a 100 trillion median), even as compute beat forecasts.
