OpenPrediction
20%: AI solves or substantially helps solve a Millennium Prize Problem by 2030
“Experts estimate a 10% chance that AI will solve or substantially assist in solving a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027, 2 up to 20% by 2030”
Context: FRI Longitudinal Expert AI Panel, Wave 2 "AI for Science" (277 experts surveyed Aug 18-Sep 15, 2025; report released Nov 10, 2025). Median expert forecast. (The "2" in the quote is a footnote marker.)
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if by 31 Dec 2030 a Millennium Prize Problem is accepted as solved, with AI credited as solving it or substantially assisting.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1545 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 20%
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
