OpenPrediction
50/50 that AI does small-business taxes end-to-end by 2028
“AI can do taxes end-to-end for my small business as well as a competent general manager could in a week: including chasing down all the receipts on different websites, finding all the missing pieces, emailing back and forth with anyone we need to hassle for invoices, filling out the form, and sending it to the IRS: 2028”
Context: Dwarkesh Patel, "Why I don't think AGI is right around the corner" (Jun 2, 2025): "timelines where I'd take a 50/50 bet".
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if by 31 Dec 2028 a generally available AI agent can do this end-to-end task as described.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 814 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 50%
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
