WrongPrediction
8.6%: AI gold-level performance at the IMO by 2025
“an outcome to which domain experts assigned only an 8.6% probability and superforecasters a mere 2.3% probability.”
Context: Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), June-Oct 2022; group median forecasts as reported by the Forecasting Research Institute in "Assessing Near-Term Accuracy in the XPT" (2025).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if an AI system achieves gold-medal-level performance at the International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Wrong ()
- Stated probability
- 9%
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- Score
- Brier 0.835 → 0.16 points
Evidence & grader’s note
Gold-level IMO performance arrived in July 2025. Brier-based score about 0.16.
