CorrectPrediction
By 2025, AIs play Diplomacy as well as human experts
“After years of tinkering and incremental progress, AIs can now play Diplomacy as well as human experts .”
Context: Scenario "What 2026 looks like" on LessWrong, 2025 section.
How we judge it
By end of 2025, an AI plays (no-press or full-press) Diplomacy at human-expert level.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Correct ()
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- Score
- 1.0 points × weight 3
Evidence & grader’s note
Happened earlier than the scenario placed it (CICERO, 2022).
