AI with an ongoing existence at the level of a mouse: not before 2030
“An AI system with an ongoing existence (no day is the repeat of another day as it currently is for all AI systems) at the level of a mouse. NET 2030”
Context: From Brooks's dated predictions table first published 1 Jan 2018 ("My Dated Predictions"). NET = "no earlier than" (correct if it has not happened before that year); BY = "by that year".
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if before 1 Jan 2030 no AI system is generally accepted as having a continuous, learning, mouse-level existence.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1177 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
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