OpenPrediction
At least one model will match human experts across many industries before end-2026
“At least one model will match the performance of human experts across many industries before the end of 2026.”
Context: "Failing to understand the exponential, again" (Sep 27, 2025), extrapolating OpenAI's GDPval benchmark.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 31 Dec 2026, a model wins or ties at least 50% of comparisons against industry experts on GDPval (or an equivalent cross-industry evaluation).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 83 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
