WrongPrediction
>16% that AI has IMO-gold capability by end of 2025
“I'll stand by a >16% probability of the technical capability existing by end of 2025”
How we judge it
Technical capability for IMO gold (grand-challenge conditions) exists by end of 2025.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Wrong ()
- Stated probability
- 16%
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- Score
- Brier 0.706 → 0.29 points
Evidence & grader’s note
Scored at the stated floor of 16% (Brier 0.706). The verdict label is "wrong" because the stated probability was below 50%, but the forecast was closer than the counterpart 8%.
