OpenPrediction
By 2030 AI will outcompete most professional mathematicians at research
“In a domain like mathematics research where work can be checked automatically, I’d predict that GPT 2030 will outcompete most professional mathematicians.”
Context: Blog post "What will GPT-2030 look like?" (Jun 2023).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by end-2030, AI systems routinely produce publishable mathematical research at or above the level of a typical professional mathematician, as judged by mainstream mathematicians.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1542 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
- What changes for
- Research & science
- Readiness milestone
- Part of AI makes novel scientific discoveries (says it happens)
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