Person
Jacob Steinhardt
Associate professor of statistics and EECS, UC Berkeley; co-founder of Transluce
- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 1
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (1)
OpenPrediction
"GPT 2030" will likely be superhuman at coding, hacking and math
“GPT 2030 will likely be superhuman at various specific tasks, including coding, hacking, and math, and potentially protein design”
Embed this scorecard
Right of reply: send a correction or response.