OpenPrediction
Frontier training clusters will cost over $100B by 2030, enabling ~1e29 FLOP runs
“On current trends, the clusters used for training frontier AI would cost over $100B by 2030. Such clusters could support training runs of about 10^29 FLOP”
Context: Epoch AI, "What will AI look like in 2030?" (Sep 2025), trend extrapolation.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if by end-2030 at least one frontier training cluster has a reported cost above $100B, and the largest known training run is within 10x of 1e29 FLOP.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1545 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
