- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 4
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (4)
By 2030 AI will autonomously fix issues, implement features and solve hard scientific programming problems
“By 2030, on current trends, AI will be able to autonomously fix issues, implement features, and solve difficult (but well-defined) scientific programming problems.”
Frontier training clusters will cost over $100B by 2030, enabling ~1e29 FLOP runs
“On current trends, the clusters used for training frontier AI would cost over $100B by 2030. Such clusters could support training runs of about 10^29 FLOP”
Few if any drugs approved by 2030 will have benefited from today's AI tools
“we expect that few if any of the drugs approved for sale by 2030 will have benefited from today’s AI tools, let alone those of 2030.”
By 2030 many scientific fields will have AI assistants comparable to today's coding assistants
“By 2030, we predict that many scientific domains will have AI assistants comparable to coding assistants for software engineers today.”
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