OpenPrediction
A new chip shortage in 2026
“We’re in a new chip shortage. Just when the fabs thought they had caught up to demand…”
Context: Scenario "What 2026 looks like", 2026 section.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: during 2026, widely reported AI-driven shortages of leading-edge chips or memory.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 83 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
