OpenPrediction
AI will use 7% of US electricity in 2030
“That rises to 7% of all electricity consumption in 2030”
Context: FRI Longitudinal Expert AI Panel, Wave 2 "AI for Science" (277 experts surveyed Aug 18-Sep 15, 2025; report released Nov 10, 2025). Median expert forecast. Follows the 4%-in-2027 median.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if credible 2030 estimates put AI training plus inference at 5.5-8.5% of US electricity consumption.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1910 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
