Deadlines – SiPoly

Every open prediction and promise on SiPoly, by the date we will grade it, plus claims whose deadline has passed and are still open. The resolve-by date is our reading of the deadline the claimant gave (for “by end of 2026” we use 31 December 2026). Add the calendar feed to Google Calendar, Apple Calendar or Outlook to see deadlines as they come.

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160 open claims come due from today; 0 are past their deadline and still open (awaiting a verdict). Dates are our reading of the deadline in each claim.

Overdue, still open (0)

The deadline has passed and an editor has not yet graded the claim against primary evidence.

None right now: every claim past its deadline has a verdict.

October 2026 (1)

Oct 29, 2026 Due in 18 days Most code for Meta's AI efforts written by AI within 12 to 18 months Mark Zuckerberg

November 2026 (2)

Nov 28, 2026 Due in 48 days EO 14434: proposed legal definition of "Super Intelligence" due to the President within 60 days The White House (U.S. executive branch) · promise
Nov 30, 2026 Due in 50 days AI will be an election issue in the 2026 US midterms Gary Marcus

December 2026 (25)

Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days By end of 2026 OpenAI will have an internal system Altman would call AGI Sam Altman
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days First clinical trials of its AI-designed drugs by end of 2026 Isomorphic Labs · promise
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days "Probably" by Dec 2026 the recursive self-improvement loop on algorithms will be closed David "davidad" Dalrymple
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days 2025 will be seen as the year of "peak bubble" for generative AI Gary Marcus
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days No country takes a decisive lead in the GenAI race in 2026 Gary Marcus
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days Home humanoid robots "all demo and very little product" in 2026 Gary Marcus
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days In 2026 AI will be able to make "very small discoveries" OpenAI
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days 10% (and rising) chance that Grok 5 achieves AGI Elon Musk
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days Fully driverless Waymo rides in London in 2026 Waymo · promise
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days At least one model will match human experts across many industries before end-2026 Julian Schrittwieser
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days Owners able to add their cars to the Tesla robotaxi fleet in 2026, "confidently next year" Tesla · promise
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days Prometheus, a 1 GW AI supercluster, online in 2026 Meta · promise
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days 2026 will likely see AI systems that figure out novel insights Sam Altman
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days AI better, faster and cheaper at any screen-based job "by next year" Emad Mostaque
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days Digital superintelligence "this year" (2025), or "next year for sure" Elon Musk
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days First 200 MW of Stargate UAE expected to go live in 2026 OpenAI · promise
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days A 10,000-person anti-AI protest in Washington, DC by late 2026 AI Futures Project
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days The stock market will be up 30% in 2026, led by AI companies AI Futures Project
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days Waymo One ready for riders in Washington, D.C. in 2026 Waymo · promise
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days Vera Rubin GPUs to ship in the second half of 2026 Nvidia · promise
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days 40% chance of AGI (replacing the majority of human jobs) by end of 2026 Andrew Critch
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days Optimus "production design 2" to launch in 2026 Tesla · promise
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days Powerful AI "could come as early as 2026" Dario Amodei
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days A new chip shortage in 2026 Daniel Kokotajlo
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days AI will outperform humans at writing high-school essays by 2026 (median) ML researchers (2016 expert survey)

February 2027 (1)

Feb 19, 2027 Due in 131 days About a 50% chance of AGI within 3 years (Feb 2024) Daniel Kokotajlo

March 2027 (4)

Mar 12, 2027 Due in 152 days "At least 3-5 years away from automating software engineering" (from Mar 2024) Bindu Reddy
Mar 31, 2027 Due in 171 days SpaceX's AI effort to reach "pole position" in about six months (from Sep 2026) Elon Musk
Mar 31, 2027 Due in 171 days Embedded third-party evaluators with "employee-like access" inside Anthropic Anthropic · promise
Mar 31, 2027 Due in 171 days Powerful AI systems in late 2026 or early 2027 Anthropic

June 2027 (3)

Jun 5, 2027 Due in 237 days Claude-written code expected to be strictly better than human-written code within the year Anthropic
Jun 30, 2027 Due in 262 days OpenAI's in-house chip program to start coming online in the first half of 2027 OpenAI · promise
Jun 30, 2027 Due in 262 days Cybercab operating commercially in California "probably by the middle of next year" (2027) Tesla · promise

July 2027 (1)

Jul 17, 2027 Due in 279 days AI "world-class mathematicians" within a year, world-class programmers within one or two (Jul 2025) Eric Schmidt

August 2027 (1)

Aug 12, 2027 Due in 305 days Most white-collar tasks automated within 12 to 18 months Mustafa Suleyman

October 2027 (3)

Oct 8, 2027 Due in 362 days An AI-led cyberattack steals complete weights of a closed frontier model (within ~12 months) Nathan Benaich
Oct 8, 2027 Due in 362 days An autonomous AI team beats human-led model research on equal time and compute, setting its agenda (within ~12 months) Nathan Benaich
Oct 24, 2027 Due in 378 days "Only two years away from the first AI feature" (Oct 2025) Paul Schrader

December 2027 (18)

Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days AGI in 2027 (State of AI Report ninth prediction) Nathan Benaich
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days In 2027, AI systems could complete tasks that take a person weeks Anthropic
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days No AGI in 2026 (or 2027) Gary Marcus
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days "Something pretty clearly superhuman in most respects by end of 2027" Miles Brundage
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days 10%: AI solves or substantially helps solve a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027 LEAP expert panel
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days By end-2027, models will frequently outperform experts on many tasks Julian Schrittwieser
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days AGI "likely to arrive by 2027" Roman Yampolskiy
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days Over 40% of agentic AI projects canceled by end of 2027 Gartner
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days 2027 may see robots that can do tasks in the real world Sam Altman
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days Rubin Ultra (NVL576) in the second half of 2027 Nvidia · promise
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days An AI company will claim AGI "probably in 2026 or 2027" Kevin Roose
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days "Strikingly plausible" that models do the work of an AI researcher/engineer by 2027 Leopold Aschenbrenner
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days 10% chance machines outperform humans at every task by 2027 AI researchers (2023 expert survey)
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days Deployed "last 10 yards" delivery robots: not before 2028 Rodney Brooks
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days Multi-task physical-assistance robot for the elderly: not before 2028 Rodney Brooks
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days Generally agreed "next big thing" beyond deep learning: by 2027 Rodney Brooks
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days Driverless taxi service in 50 of the 100 biggest US cities: not before 2028 Rodney Brooks
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days AI will outperform humans at driving a truck by 2027 (median) ML researchers (2016 expert survey)

January 2028 (3)

Jan 1, 2028 Due in 447 days ~25%: 80%-reliability one-month task horizons by the start of 2028 Ryan Greenblatt
Jan 10, 2028 Due in 456 days "A 50% chance of AGI in the next 3 years" (from Jan 2025) Shane Legg
Jan 31, 2028 Due in 477 days US real GDP growth in 2027 above 3.3%, ">50% higher than 2026" Elon Musk

March 2028 (1)

Mar 30, 2028 Due in 536 days "Some form of AGI in the next six to 18 months" (Sep 2026) Dan Schulman

May 2028 (1)

May 1, 2028 Due in 568 days 30% of IBM back-office roles replaced over five years Arvind Krishna

June 2028 (4)

Jun 30, 2028 Due in 628 days METR 50% time horizons of about two weeks around the start of 2028 Ryan Greenblatt
Jun 30, 2028 Due in 628 days Generative AI will reduce Amazon's total corporate workforce "in the next few years" Amazon
Jun 30, 2028 Due in 628 days Bet: AI will do at least 8 of Marcus's 10 hard tasks by the end of 2027 Miles Brundage
Jun 30, 2028 Due in 628 days Bet (10:1 odds): AI will not do 8 of 10 hard tasks by the end of 2027 Gary Marcus

July 2028 (1)

Jul 31, 2028 Due in 659 days "There will be no programmers in five years" Emad Mostaque

September 2028 (1)

Sep 23, 2028 Due in 713 days A "country of geniuses in the data center" within "one or two years, maybe less" (Sep 2026) Dario Amodei

October 2028 (1)

Oct 29, 2028 Due in 749 days AGI "likely to emerge in the next four years" (from Oct 2024) Thomas L. Friedman

November 2028 (1)

Nov 9, 2028 Due in 760 days Within five years you will "simply tell your device" what you want instead of using apps Bill Gates

December 2028 (10)

Dec 31, 2028 Due in 812 days About a 50% chance that AI companies automate the whole AI research process by end of 2028 Daniel Kokotajlo
Dec 31, 2028 Due in 812 days 1.6% of recently approved drug sales in 2027 will come from AI-discovered drugs (5% by 2030) LEAP expert panel
Dec 31, 2028 Due in 812 days AI will use 4% of US electricity in 2027 (7% in 2030) LEAP expert panel
Dec 31, 2028 Due in 812 days "Pretty confident" of AI that makes more significant discoveries in 2028 and beyond OpenAI
Dec 31, 2028 Due in 812 days A fully automated "legitimate AI researcher" by 2028 OpenAI · promise
Dec 31, 2028 Due in 812 days 33% of enterprise software apps will include agentic AI by 2028; 15% of daily work decisions autonomous Gartner
Dec 31, 2028 Due in 812 days 50/50 that AI does small-business taxes end-to-end by 2028 Dwarkesh Patel
Dec 31, 2028 Due in 812 days 75% chance of AGI (replacing the majority of human jobs) by end of 2028 Andrew Critch
Dec 31, 2028 Due in 812 days Individual training clusters costing hundreds of billions of dollars by 2028 Leopold Aschenbrenner
Dec 31, 2028 Due in 812 days At least 50%: AI builds a payment site from scratch, writes a hit-indistinguishable song and fine-tunes an LLM by itself by 2028 AI researchers (2023 expert survey)

January 2029 (4)

Jan 1, 2029 Due in 813 days ~15%: AI capable of fully automating AI R&D by the start of 2029 Ryan Greenblatt
Jan 20, 2029 Due in 832 days AGI "will probably get developed during this president's term" Sam Altman
Jan 21, 2029 Due in 833 days Stargate: $500B of US AI infrastructure over four years OpenAI · promise
Jan 30, 2029 Due in 842 days Bet: AI will not get an A on 5 of his 6 latest midterms by January 2029 Bryan Caplan

March 2029 (1)

Mar 19, 2029 Due in 890 days AI will do well on any specified test set ("AGI") within 5 years Jensen Huang

May 2029 (1)

May 29, 2029 Due in 961 days AI will displace social drinking within five years Jonathan Ross

June 2029 (3)

Jun 11, 2029 Due in 974 days In five years there will be more software engineers than today, not fewer François Chollet
Jun 21, 2029 Due in 984 days AGI "one to 10 times smarter than humans" in the next three to five years Masayoshi Son
Jun 30, 2029 Due in 993 days Data-center AI accelerator market to reach $500 billion by 2028 AMD

July 2029 (1)

Jul 4, 2029 Due in 997 days Binding regulation on the most powerful AI model developers UK Labour Party / UK Government · promise

October 2029 (1)

Oct 31, 2029 Due in 1116 days AI systems improving their own code in ~5 years; 80-90% of expert ability in every field in 6-8 years Eric Schmidt

December 2029 (9)

Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1177 days Median 2029 for full coding automation (as of Feb 2026) Daniel Kokotajlo
Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1177 days No halving of US labor-force participation and no 15% GDP growth year by 2029 Matthew Barnett
Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1177 days LLM hallucinations "much less of a problem, certainly by 2029" Ray Kurzweil
Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1177 days Human-level intelligence and AGI by 2029 Ray Kurzweil
Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1177 days By 2029, AI "probably smarter than all humans combined" Elon Musk
Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1177 days AI with an ongoing existence at the level of a mouse: not before 2030 Rodney Brooks
Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1177 days Dexterous robot hands generally available: not before 2030 (hopefully by 2040) Rodney Brooks
Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1177 days Home-navigating robot as an expensive product: not before 2030 Rodney Brooks
Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1177 days Long Bet: no computer will pass the Turing Test by 2029 Mitch Kapor

January 2030 (1)

Jan 23, 2030 Due in 1200 days Current LLM paradigm has a shelf life of "probably three to five years" Yann LeCun

March 2030 (3)

Mar 11, 2030 Due in 1247 days Bet: AI produces Annals-quality number theory papers for under $100k each within 5 years Tamay Besiroglu
Mar 31, 2030 Due in 1267 days Long Bet: AI will not lift US productivity growth above 1.8%/yr in the 2020s Robert J. Gordon
Mar 31, 2030 Due in 1267 days Long Bet: US productivity growth will average over 1.8%/yr in 2020-2029 Erik Brynjolfsson

May 2030 (3)

May 22, 2030 Due in 1319 days "Almost guaranteed": a drop-in white-collar worker within five years, "very likely in two" (May 2025) Sholto Douglas
May 23, 2030 Due in 1320 days AI able to replace more than half of humans "within 5 years" (from May 2025) Scott Alexander
May 28, 2030 Due in 1325 days AI could wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to 10-20% within 1-5 years Dario Amodei

July 2030 (1)

Jul 1, 2030 Due in 1359 days Within five years AI will be able to do 80% of 80% of all jobs Vinod Khosla

September 2030 (1)

Sep 4, 2030 Due in 1424 days "In five years" unemployment levels never seen before: "Not talking about 10% … but 99%" Roman Yampolskiy

December 2030 (14)

Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days Median 2030 for full coding automation (AI Futures Model) Eli Lifland
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days 20%: AI solves or substantially helps solve a Millennium Prize Problem by 2030 LEAP expert panel
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days By 2030 AI will autonomously fix issues, implement features and solve hard scientific programming problems Epoch AI
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days Frontier training clusters will cost over $100B by 2030, enabling ~1e29 FLOP runs Epoch AI
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days Few if any drugs approved by 2030 will have benefited from today's AI tools Epoch AI
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days By 2030 many scientific fields will have AI assistants comparable to today's coding assistants Epoch AI
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days Hyperion data centre: 2 GW online by 2030, scaling to 5 GW Meta · promise
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days UK to expand its AI Research Resource compute "by at least 20x by 2030" UK Labour Party / UK Government · promise
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days Claims of AGI by 2030 are "laughable" Christopher Manning
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days Human-level AGI most likely in 2029-2030, possibly as early as 2027 Ben Goertzel
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days By 2030 AI will outcompete most professional mathematicians at research Jacob Steinhardt
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days "GPT 2030" will likely be superhuman at coding, hacking and math Jacob Steinhardt
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days ~15% probability of transformative AI by 2030 Ajeya Cotra
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days China to be "the world's primary AI innovation center" by 2030 China State Council · promise

September 2031 (1)

Sep 18, 2031 Due in 1803 days "Real AI" (beyond today's chatbots) arrives in about 5 years David Krueger

December 2031 (5)

Dec 31, 2031 Due in 1907 days ~30% of physics, materials science and medicine papers will engage AI by 2030 (from 3% in 2022) LEAP expert panel
Dec 31, 2031 Due in 1907 days AI will use 7% of US electricity in 2030 LEAP expert panel
Dec 31, 2031 Due in 1907 days Data centre electricity demand will more than double to ~945 TWh by 2030 International Energy Agency
Dec 31, 2031 Due in 1907 days A major city bans human-driven cars from part of town for driverless cars: 2027 to 2031 Rodney Brooks
Dec 31, 2031 Due in 1907 days AI will outperform humans at working in retail by 2031 (median) ML researchers (2016 expert survey)

December 2032 (1)

Dec 31, 2032 Due in 2273 days 50/50 that AI learns on the job like a human for any white-collar work by 2032 Dwarkesh Patel

January 2033 (1)

Jan 1, 2033 Due in 2274 days 45%: AI capable of fully automating AI R&D by the start of 2033 Ryan Greenblatt

December 2033 (2)

Dec 31, 2033 Due in 2638 days AGI "slightly after" 2030, not quite by 2030 Sundar Pichai
Dec 31, 2033 Due in 2638 days Generative AI could raise global GDP by 7% over ten years Goldman Sachs Research

January 2034 (1)

Jan 13, 2034 Due in 2651 days AI will displace about 40% of the world's jobs within 15 years Kai-Fu Lee

June 2034 (1)

Jun 21, 2034 Due in 2810 days AI "10,000 times smarter than humans" within 10 years Masayoshi Son

December 2034 (2)

Dec 31, 2034 Due in 3003 days AI will add less than 0.55% to total factor productivity over 10 years Daron Acemoglu
Dec 31, 2034 Due in 3003 days Affordable home-navigating robot: not before 2035 Rodney Brooks

February 2035 (1)

Feb 28, 2035 Due in 3062 days Within a decade AI makes great medical advice and tutoring "free, commonplace" Bill Gates

March 2035 (1)

Mar 19, 2035 Due in 3081 days Within a decade, AI agents will independently do many software tasks that take humans days or weeks METR

April 2035 (2)

Apr 15, 2035 Due in 3108 days Transformative economic and societal impacts of AI will take decades Arvind Narayanan
Apr 30, 2035 Due in 3123 days Only about 30% chance of full remote-work automation within 10 years Ege Erdil

June 2035 (1)

Jun 4, 2035 Due in 3158 days Maybe 50% chance of AGI in five to ten years Demis Hassabis

October 2035 (1)

Oct 17, 2035 Due in 3293 days Truly capable AI agents are about "a decade" away, not "the year of agents" Andrej Karpathy

November 2035 (1)

Nov 12, 2035 Due in 3319 days Strong AGI expected "in the next 5-10 years" (from Nov 2025) Daniel Kokotajlo

January 2036 (2)

Jan 1, 2036 Due in 3369 days Humanoid dexterity "will remain pathetic" compared to human hands through 2035 Rodney Brooks
Jan 1, 2036 Due in 3369 days Only Waymo and Zoox will matter for US self-driving through 2035 Rodney Brooks

December 2036 (1)

Dec 31, 2036 Due in 3734 days ~35% probability of transformative AI by 2036 Ajeya Cotra

December 2037 (1)

Dec 31, 2037 Due in 4099 days 10% chance all human occupations are fully automatable by 2037 (50% by 2116) AI researchers (2023 expert survey)

December 2040 (1)

Dec 31, 2040 Due in 5195 days Median ~2040 for transformative AI (50% by 2040) Ajeya Cotra

December 2043 (1)

Dec 31, 2043 Due in 6290 days Transformative AGI by 2043 is less than 1% likely Ted Sanders

December 2044 (1)

Dec 27, 2044 Due in 6652 days AIs smarter than people "within probably the next 20 years" Geoffrey Hinton

November 2045 (1)

Nov 25, 2045 Due in 6985 days A system that learns as well as a human, then becomes superhuman: "5 to 20" years Ilya Sutskever

December 2045 (1)

Dec 31, 2045 Due in 7021 days "We are going to expand intelligence a millionfold by 2045" Ray Kurzweil

December 2047 (2)

Dec 31, 2047 Due in 7751 days 50% chance machines outperform humans at every task by 2047 AI researchers (2023 expert survey)
Dec 31, 2047 Due in 7751 days A robot as intelligent, attentive and faithful as a dog: not before 2048 Rodney Brooks

December 2049 (1)

Dec 31, 2049 Due in 8482 days AI will write a bestselling book by 2049 (median) ML researchers (2016 expert survey)

December 2053 (1)

Dec 31, 2053 Due in 9943 days AI will outperform humans at working as a surgeon by 2053 (median) ML researchers (2016 expert survey)

December 2054 (1)

Dec 27, 2054 Due in 10304 days "10% to 20%" chance AI leads to human extinction within three decades Geoffrey Hinton

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