Coming due

Open predictions and promises, sorted by the date we will grade them. The resolve-by date is our reading of the deadline the claimant gave (for “by end of 2026” we use 31 December 2026). Claims past that date stay listed until an editor grades them against primary evidence.

Past due, awaiting a verdict

Jun 30, 2025 Overdue by 465 days About $80B on AI datacenters in FY2025 — Microsoft
Dec 31, 2025 Overdue by 281 days "Several thousand" Optimus robots built in 2025 — Tesla
Dec 31, 2025 Overdue by 281 days "Probably in 2025" an AI that can be a mid-level engineer — Mark Zuckerberg
Dec 31, 2025 Overdue by 281 days Truly driverless cars limited to a modest number of cities in 2025 — Gary Marcus
Apr 8, 2026 Overdue by 183 days AGI, defined as smarter than the smartest human, "within two years" — Elon Musk

October 2026

Oct 29, 2026 Due in 21 days Most code for Meta's AI efforts written by AI within 12 to 18 months — Mark Zuckerberg

November 2026

Nov 30, 2026 Due in 53 days AI will be an election issue in the 2026 US midterms — Gary Marcus

December 2026

Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days First clinical trials of its AI-designed drugs by end of 2026 — Isomorphic Labs
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days 2025 will be seen as the year of "peak bubble" for generative AI — Gary Marcus
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days No country takes a decisive lead in the GenAI race in 2026 — Gary Marcus
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days Home humanoid robots "all demo and very little product" in 2026 — Gary Marcus
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days In 2026 AI will be able to make "very small discoveries" — OpenAI
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days Fully driverless Waymo rides in London in 2026 — Waymo
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days At least one model will match human experts across many industries before end-2026 — Julian Schrittwieser
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days Owners able to add their cars to the Tesla robotaxi fleet in 2026, "confidently next year" — Tesla
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days 2026 will likely see AI systems that figure out novel insights — Sam Altman
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days First 200 MW of Stargate UAE expected to go live in 2026 — OpenAI
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days A 10,000-person anti-AI protest in Washington, DC by late 2026 — AI Futures Project
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days The stock market will be up 30% in 2026, led by AI companies — AI Futures Project
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days Waymo One ready for riders in Washington, D.C. in 2026 — Waymo
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days Vera Rubin GPUs to ship in the second half of 2026 — Nvidia
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days 40% chance of AGI (replacing the majority of human jobs) by end of 2026 — Andrew Critch
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days Optimus "production design 2" to launch in 2026 — Tesla
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days Powerful AI "could come as early as 2026" — Dario Amodei
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days A new chip shortage in 2026 — Daniel Kokotajlo
Dec 31, 2026 Due in 84 days AI will outperform humans at writing high-school essays by 2026 (median) — ML researchers (2016 expert survey)

March 2027

Mar 12, 2027 Due in 155 days "At least 3-5 years away from automating software engineering" (from Mar 2024) — Bindu Reddy
Mar 31, 2027 Due in 174 days Powerful AI systems in late 2026 or early 2027 — Anthropic

August 2027

Aug 12, 2027 Due in 308 days Most white-collar tasks automated within 12 to 18 months — Mustafa Suleyman

December 2027

Dec 31, 2027 Due in 449 days No AGI in 2026 (or 2027) — Gary Marcus
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 449 days "Something pretty clearly superhuman in most respects by end of 2027" — Miles Brundage
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 449 days 10%: AI solves or substantially helps solve a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027 — LEAP expert panel
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 449 days By end-2027, models will frequently outperform experts on many tasks — Julian Schrittwieser
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 449 days AGI "likely to arrive by 2027" — Roman Yampolskiy
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 449 days Over 40% of agentic AI projects canceled by end of 2027 — Gartner
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 449 days 2027 may see robots that can do tasks in the real world — Sam Altman
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 449 days Rubin Ultra (NVL576) in the second half of 2027 — Nvidia
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 449 days "Strikingly plausible" that models do the work of an AI researcher/engineer by 2027 — Leopold Aschenbrenner
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 449 days 10% chance machines outperform humans at every task by 2027 — AI researchers (2023 expert survey)
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 449 days Deployed "last 10 yards" delivery robots: not before 2028 — Rodney Brooks
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 449 days Multi-task physical-assistance robot for the elderly: not before 2028 — Rodney Brooks
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 449 days Generally agreed "next big thing" beyond deep learning: by 2027 — Rodney Brooks
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 449 days Driverless taxi service in 50 of the 100 biggest US cities: not before 2028 — Rodney Brooks
Dec 31, 2027 Due in 449 days AI will outperform humans at driving a truck by 2027 (median) — ML researchers (2016 expert survey)

January 2028

Jan 1, 2028 Due in 450 days ~25%: 80%-reliability one-month task horizons by the start of 2028 — Ryan Greenblatt
Jan 10, 2028 Due in 459 days "A 50% chance of AGI in the next 3 years" (from Jan 2025) — Shane Legg

May 2028

May 1, 2028 Due in 571 days 30% of IBM back-office roles replaced over five years — Arvind Krishna

June 2028

Jun 30, 2028 Due in 631 days METR 50% time horizons of about two weeks around the start of 2028 — Ryan Greenblatt
Jun 30, 2028 Due in 631 days Bet: AI will do at least 8 of Marcus's 10 hard tasks by the end of 2027 — Miles Brundage
Jun 30, 2028 Due in 631 days Bet (10:1 odds): AI will not do 8 of 10 hard tasks by the end of 2027 — Gary Marcus

July 2028

Jul 31, 2028 Due in 662 days "There will be no programmers in five years" — Emad Mostaque

November 2028

Nov 9, 2028 Due in 763 days Within five years you will "simply tell your device" what you want instead of using apps — Bill Gates

December 2028

Dec 31, 2028 Due in 815 days AI will use 4% of US electricity in 2027 (7% in 2030) — LEAP expert panel
Dec 31, 2028 Due in 815 days "Pretty confident" of AI that makes more significant discoveries in 2028 and beyond — OpenAI
Dec 31, 2028 Due in 815 days A fully automated "legitimate AI researcher" by 2028 — OpenAI
Dec 31, 2028 Due in 815 days 50/50 that AI does small-business taxes end-to-end by 2028 — Dwarkesh Patel
Dec 31, 2028 Due in 815 days 75% chance of AGI (replacing the majority of human jobs) by end of 2028 — Andrew Critch
Dec 31, 2028 Due in 815 days Individual training clusters costing hundreds of billions of dollars by 2028 — Leopold Aschenbrenner
Dec 31, 2028 Due in 815 days At least 50%: AI builds a payment site from scratch, writes a hit-indistinguishable song and fine-tunes an LLM by itself by 2028 — AI researchers (2023 expert survey)

January 2029

Jan 1, 2029 Due in 816 days ~15%: AI capable of fully automating AI R&D by the start of 2029 — Ryan Greenblatt
Jan 20, 2029 Due in 835 days AGI "will probably get developed during this president's term" — Sam Altman
Jan 21, 2029 Due in 836 days Stargate: $500B of US AI infrastructure over four years — OpenAI
Jan 30, 2029 Due in 845 days Bet: AI will not get an A on 5 of his 6 latest midterms by January 2029 — Bryan Caplan

March 2029

Mar 19, 2029 Due in 893 days AI will do well on any specified test set ("AGI") within 5 years — Jensen Huang

May 2029

May 29, 2029 Due in 964 days AI will displace social drinking within five years — Jonathan Ross

June 2029

Jun 11, 2029 Due in 977 days In five years there will be more software engineers than today, not fewer — François Chollet
Jun 21, 2029 Due in 987 days AGI "one to 10 times smarter than humans" in the next three to five years — Masayoshi Son
Jun 30, 2029 Due in 996 days Data-center AI accelerator market to reach $500 billion by 2028 — AMD

July 2029

Jul 4, 2029 Due in 1000 days Binding regulation on the most powerful AI model developers — UK Labour Party / UK Government

December 2029

Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1180 days Median 2029 for full coding automation (as of Feb 2026) — Daniel Kokotajlo
Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1180 days No halving of US labor-force participation and no 15% GDP growth year by 2029 — Matthew Barnett
Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1180 days LLM hallucinations "much less of a problem, certainly by 2029" — Ray Kurzweil
Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1180 days Human-level intelligence and AGI by 2029 — Ray Kurzweil
Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1180 days Dexterous robot hands generally available: not before 2030 (hopefully by 2040) — Rodney Brooks
Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1180 days Home-navigating robot as an expensive product: not before 2030 — Rodney Brooks
Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1180 days Long Bet: no computer will pass the Turing Test by 2029 — Mitch Kapor

January 2030

Jan 23, 2030 Due in 1203 days Current LLM paradigm has a shelf life of "probably three to five years" — Yann LeCun

March 2030

Mar 11, 2030 Due in 1250 days Bet: AI produces Annals-quality number theory papers for under $100k each within 5 years — Tamay Besiroglu
Mar 31, 2030 Due in 1270 days Long Bet: AI will not lift US productivity growth above 1.8%/yr in the 2020s — Robert J. Gordon
Mar 31, 2030 Due in 1270 days Long Bet: US productivity growth will average over 1.8%/yr in 2020-2029 — Erik Brynjolfsson

May 2030

May 28, 2030 Due in 1328 days AI could wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to 10-20% within 1-5 years — Dario Amodei

September 2030

Sep 4, 2030 Due in 1427 days "In five years" unemployment levels never seen before: "Not talking about 10% … but 99%" — Roman Yampolskiy

December 2030

Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1545 days Median 2030 for full coding automation (AI Futures Model) — Eli Lifland
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1545 days 20%: AI solves or substantially helps solve a Millennium Prize Problem by 2030 — LEAP expert panel
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1545 days By 2030 AI will autonomously fix issues, implement features and solve hard scientific programming problems — Epoch AI
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1545 days Frontier training clusters will cost over $100B by 2030, enabling ~1e29 FLOP runs — Epoch AI
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1545 days Few if any drugs approved by 2030 will have benefited from today's AI tools — Epoch AI
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1545 days By 2030 many scientific fields will have AI assistants comparable to today's coding assistants — Epoch AI
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1545 days Hyperion data centre: 2 GW online by 2030, scaling to 5 GW — Meta
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1545 days UK to expand its AI Research Resource compute "by at least 20x by 2030" — UK Labour Party / UK Government
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1545 days Claims of AGI by 2030 are "laughable" — Christopher Manning
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1545 days Human-level AGI most likely in 2029-2030, possibly as early as 2027 — Ben Goertzel
Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1545 days "GPT 2030" will likely be superhuman at coding, hacking and math — Jacob Steinhardt

September 2031

Sep 18, 2031 Due in 1806 days "Real AI" (beyond today's chatbots) arrives in about 5 years — David Krueger

December 2031

Dec 31, 2031 Due in 1910 days ~30% of physics, materials science and medicine papers will engage AI by 2030 (from 3% in 2022) — LEAP expert panel
Dec 31, 2031 Due in 1910 days AI will use 7% of US electricity in 2030 — LEAP expert panel
Dec 31, 2031 Due in 1910 days Data centre electricity demand will more than double to ~945 TWh by 2030 — International Energy Agency
Dec 31, 2031 Due in 1910 days A major city bans human-driven cars from part of town for driverless cars: 2027 to 2031 — Rodney Brooks
Dec 31, 2031 Due in 1910 days AI will outperform humans at working in retail by 2031 (median) — ML researchers (2016 expert survey)

December 2032

Dec 31, 2032 Due in 2276 days 50/50 that AI learns on the job like a human for any white-collar work by 2032 — Dwarkesh Patel

January 2033

Jan 1, 2033 Due in 2277 days 45%: AI capable of fully automating AI R&D by the start of 2033 — Ryan Greenblatt

December 2033

Dec 31, 2033 Due in 2641 days AGI "slightly after" 2030, not quite by 2030 — Sundar Pichai
Dec 31, 2033 Due in 2641 days Generative AI could raise global GDP by 7% over ten years — Goldman Sachs Research

January 2034

Jan 13, 2034 Due in 2654 days AI will displace about 40% of the world's jobs within 15 years — Kai-Fu Lee

June 2034

Jun 21, 2034 Due in 2813 days AI "10,000 times smarter than humans" within 10 years — Masayoshi Son

December 2034

Dec 31, 2034 Due in 3006 days Affordable home-navigating robot: not before 2035 — Rodney Brooks

February 2035

Feb 28, 2035 Due in 3065 days Within a decade AI makes great medical advice and tutoring "free, commonplace" — Bill Gates

March 2035

Mar 19, 2035 Due in 3084 days Within a decade, AI agents will independently do many software tasks that take humans days or weeks — METR

April 2035

Apr 30, 2035 Due in 3126 days Only about 30% chance of full remote-work automation within 10 years — Ege Erdil

June 2035

Jun 4, 2035 Due in 3161 days Maybe 50% chance of AGI in five to ten years — Demis Hassabis

October 2035

Oct 17, 2035 Due in 3296 days Truly capable AI agents are about "a decade" away, not "the year of agents" — Andrej Karpathy

November 2035

Nov 12, 2035 Due in 3322 days Strong AGI expected "in the next 5-10 years" (from Nov 2025) — Daniel Kokotajlo

January 2036

Jan 1, 2036 Due in 3372 days Only Waymo and Zoox will matter for US self-driving through 2035 — Rodney Brooks

December 2037

Dec 31, 2037 Due in 4102 days 10% chance all human occupations are fully automatable by 2037 (50% by 2116) — AI researchers (2023 expert survey)

December 2043

Dec 31, 2043 Due in 6293 days Transformative AGI by 2043 is less than 1% likely — Ted Sanders

December 2044

Dec 27, 2044 Due in 6655 days AIs smarter than people "within probably the next 20 years" — Geoffrey Hinton

November 2045

Nov 25, 2045 Due in 6988 days A system that learns as well as a human, then becomes superhuman: "5 to 20" years — Ilya Sutskever

December 2047

Dec 31, 2047 Due in 7754 days 50% chance machines outperform humans at every task by 2047 — AI researchers (2023 expert survey)

December 2049

Dec 31, 2049 Due in 8485 days AI will write a bestselling book by 2049 (median) — ML researchers (2016 expert survey)

December 2053

Dec 31, 2053 Due in 9946 days AI will outperform humans at working as a surgeon by 2053 (median) — ML researchers (2016 expert survey)

December 2054

Dec 27, 2054 Due in 10307 days "10% to 20%" chance AI leads to human extinction within three decades — Geoffrey Hinton

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