Everyone whose public predictions or promises we track. Profiles show the full track record, calibration, and claims still open.
People
- Aidan McLaughlin
- Andrej Karpathy
- Andrew Critch
- Arvind Krishna
- Ben Goertzel
- Bill Gates
- Bindu Reddy
- Bryan Caplan
- Christopher Manning
- Daniel Kokotajlo
- Dario Amodei
- David Krueger
- Demis Hassabis
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Ege Erdil
- Eli Lifland
- Eliezer Yudkowsky
- Elon Musk
- Emad Mostaque
- Erik Brynjolfsson
- François Chollet
- Gary Marcus
- Geoffrey Hinton
- Ilya Sutskever
- Jacob Steinhardt
- Jensen Huang
- John Zimmer
- Jonathan Ross
- Julian Schrittwieser
- Kai-Fu Lee
- Leopold Aschenbrenner
- Mark Zuckerberg
- Masayoshi Son
- Matthew Barnett
- Miles Brundage
- Mitch Kapor
- Mustafa Suleyman
- Paul Christiano
- Ray Kurzweil
- Robert J. Gordon
- Rodney Brooks
- Roman Yampolskiy
- Ryan Greenblatt
- Sam Altman
- Scott Alexander
- Shane Legg
- Sundar Pichai
- Tamay Besiroglu
- Ted Sanders
- Yann LeCun
Organizations
- AI Futures Project
- AI researchers (2023 expert survey)
- AMD
- Anthropic
- Apple
- Baidu
- Epoch AI
- European Union (AI Act)
- Ford Motor Company
- Gartner
- General Motors
- Goldman Sachs Research
- Google / Google DeepMind
- Intel
- International Energy Agency
- Isomorphic Labs
- LEAP expert panel
- Meta
- METR
- Microsoft
- ML researchers (2016 expert survey)
- Motional
- Nvidia
- OpenAI
- Tesla
- The White House (U.S. executive branch)
- UK Labour Party / UK Government
- Vox Future Perfect
- Waymo
- xAI
- XPT domain experts
- XPT superforecasters
- Zoox