Person
Mitch Kapor
Founder of Lotus Development; co-founder of the Electronic Frontier Foundation
- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 1
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (1)
OpenPrediction
Long Bet: no computer will pass the Turing Test by 2029
“By 2029 no computer – or "machine intelligence" – will have passed the Turing Test.”
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