Person
Andrej Karpathy
AI researcher; founding member of OpenAI, former director of AI at Tesla
- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 1
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (1)
OpenPrediction
Truly capable AI agents are about "a decade" away, not "the year of agents"
“I feel like the problems are tractable, they’re surmountable, but they’re still difficult. If I just average it out, it just feels like a decade to me.”
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