Person
Jack Clark
Co-founder and head of policy, Anthropic; author of the Import AI newsletter
- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 2
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (2)
Full recursive self-improvement (RSI) is now more likely to become possible in 2027 than in 2028
“I now think it’s more likely we’ll see full RSI become possible in 2027, whereas before I thought it was more likely in 2028.”
About a 60% chance that a frontier AI model can autonomously train its own successor by the end of 2028
“Given all of this, I think there’s a ~60% chance we see automated AI R&D (where a frontier model is able to autonomously train a successor version of itself) by the end of 2028.”
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